China's PV installed capacity maintained a high-speed growth trend. In 2012, China's PV installed capacity was 3.56GW, with a cumulative installed capacity of 7.06GW. In 2017, China's new PV installed capacity was 53.1GW, a year-on-year increase of 53.7%, a compound annual growth rate of 71.7%, a cumulative installed capacity of 130.0GW, a year-on-year increase of 66.5%, and a five-year compound growth rate of 79.1%. In 2017, China's distributed photovoltaic burst growth, the new distributed installed capacity of 19.3GW, an increase of 357%, the cumulative installed capacity reached 29.7GW, accounting for 22.8%.

Demand for installed capacity will fall in the next three years, and distributed, photovoltaic poverty alleviation and front-runner programs will become the main focus of growth. Affected by the 17-year high base and the 531 policy, domestic PV installation demand has declined in 2018-2020. According to estimates, the new PV installation demand in 2018-2020 is 40GW, 40GW, and 45GW, respectively, totaling approximately 125GW. From 2018 to 2020, the total installed capacity of centralized power stations is about 17GW, 13GW, and 14GW, respectively. The total installed capacity of distributed power stations is about 20GW, 21GW, and 22GW respectively. In addition, the regional centralized power station managed by itself is about 3GW per year. . The top-loaders in the new installed capacity plan for a total of about 20GW, the total PV poverty alleviation is about 28GW, and the distributed (excluding poverty alleviation) totals about 52GW.

The cost of all aspects of photovoltaic manufacturing continues to decline, and affordable Internet access is coming. 2018H1, the manufacturing cost (including tax) of silicon material, silicon wafer, battery chip and component parts has dropped to 65.00 yuan/kg, 3.45 yuan/piece, 1.31 yuan/W, 2.27 yuan/W, and the system cost is about 5.4 yuan/W. . Subsidy subsidies have forced PV manufacturers to continuously reduce production costs through capacity expansion and technological advancement, and affordable Internet access is coming. Under the assumption of parity Internet access, the cost of each link of photovoltaics will further decline. The manufacturing costs (including tax) of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery chips and component parts are about 45.00 yuan/kg, 2.10 yuan/piece, 0.77 yuan/W, 1.56 respectively. Yuan/W, the system cost is about 3.29 yuan / W.

China 531 the short-term impact of the policy is obvious, which is conducive to promoting parity online. On May 31, 2018, the three ministries jointly issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018". The policy impact is mainly reflected in the following two aspects: In the short term, the indicator restrictions have led to a decline in China's PV installation demand in 2018. According to the policy arrangement, in 2018, the PV power plant indicator will not be arranged, and a scale of about 10GW will be arranged for the distributed photovoltaic project. In the medium and long term, PV subsidy retreat is expected to accelerate the realization of affordable Internet access. According to the policy, from the date of the issuance of the text, the on-grid tariff of the newly-operated photovoltaic power station will be reduced by 0.05 yuan per kWh; the newly-launched distributed photovoltaic power generation project adopting the mode of “spontaneous use and surplus electricity” will be fully charged. The subsidy standard for electricity is reduced by 0.05 yuan. The subsidy of photovoltaic subsidies can promote enterprises to reduce costs through technological advancement, and PV parity online is coming soon.

The quota system is about to land, or it will help speed up the Internet. In September 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Renewable Energy Power Quota and Assessment Method (Second Consultation Draft)", proposing to establish a renewable energy binding consumption mechanism, planning the provincial-level administrative regions 2018, renewable energy in 2020 The proportion of electricity consumption, the implementation of full-scale guaranteed acquisition of centralized wind power, photovoltaic power and other non-water renewable energy generation within the guaranteed hours (considering technical and other limiting factors to limit electricity by up to 5%). If landing quotas, will increase the number of annual utilization hours of photovoltaic power plants, further reducing the cost of electricity, helping to accelerate grid parity.